Money news | Personal finances, Earnings & Markets

Money markets rates seen falling thanks to cash flush banks


* Libor seen falling further after ECB, Bernanke * Some U.S. appetite for longer-dated French bank debt * U.S. interest rate volatility hovers at low levels * Options suggest longer-term concerns about higher rates By Richard Leong NEW YORK, March 2 Short-term borrowing costs for dollars will likely fall further in the coming days as European banks are flush with cash after they aggressively bid for cheap funds from the European Central Bank this week. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's assurance the U.S. central bank will likely cling to its near-zero interest rate policy at least until late 2014 leaves more room for interbank lending rates to fall, analysts said on Friday. Another encouraging development for the dollar funding market was the emergence of investor appetite for unsecured, longer-dated French bank debt, they said. At the end of 2011, most investors shunned French bank debt with the exception of overnight secured loans. French banks have the highest combined exposure to Greece and Italy, two heavily indebted euro zone countries. "There is a lot of money coming from Europe," said Mike Lin, director of U.S. dollar funding at TD Securities in New York. "It's hard to fight the trend right now." And the trend suggests the London interbank offered rate for three-month dollars could decline 0.5 basis point in the coming days, Lin said. On Friday, three-month dollar Libor was fixed at 0.47575 percent, the lowest since mid-November. Nearby Eurodollar futures, which gauge expectations on three-month Libor, rose for a fifth straight day. The December 2012 Eurodollar contract touched its highest in about a month on Friday at 99.430. Most stress measures in the dollar funding market will likely ease further since ECB awarded 530 billion euros in three-year loans to 800 banks on Wednesday. The spread between three-month Libor and the three-month Overnight Indexed Swap rate that measures expectations on the Fed's policy rate hovered at 36 basis points, the tightest since early November. The gap between two-year dollar interest rate swaps and two-year Treasury note yields shrank to 25 basis points late Friday, the narrowest since mid-August, according to Tradeweb. Since December, ECB's two three-year Long Term Refinancing Operations (LTROs) injected more than a trillion euros into the banking system. While these ECB loans are denominated in euros, this hefty cash infusion lessens the urgency for banks to raise money in the open market, where investors remain wary about bank exposure from the region's sovereign debt problem. "The LTROs have added a lot of cash there. It means their overall demand for cash is a lot lower," Lin said. In light of the market's protracted low-rate outlook, measures of interest rate volatility hovered near their recent lows. For example, Bank of America Merrill Lynch's MOVE index on dollar interest rate swaption volatility was about 77 basis points on Friday, above its recent low of 70 basis points but far below the 118 basis points set in early August 2011. A low-rate, low-volatility climate enables traders to take more risks and to engage in costly hedging strategies. "They don't have to hedge as much," said Jim Vogel, interest rate strategist at FTN Financial in Memphis, Tennessee. Even if a trader needs to exit from a position, he can easily find either a buyer or seller, Vogel said. "There is no shortage of cash around." While the ECB and the Fed are committed to keeping rates low and ample cash in the bank system, some traders scaled back their longer-term expectations that U.S. rates would stay low once the central banks begin to withdraw monetary stimulus. In the options market, the ratio on 10-year Treasury puts to 10-year Treasury calls rose above its 10-day moving average on Friday. This suggested more traders are bracing for higher longer-term Treasury yields on perception of a successful LTRO this week, less likelihood of more bond purchases from the Fed and encouraging U.S. economic data, according to Gennadiy Goldberg, fixed income strategist at 4Cast Ltd in New York.

Money markets repo market slowdown underscores banks ecb dependence


* Repo volumes shrink as euro zone banks prefer ECB cash* ECB dependency seen remaining high over longer term* Flood of ECB liquidity caps worsening of banking stressBy William JamesLONDON, Jan 23 Shrinking volumes for secured lending in the interbank market are symptomatic of the fractured trust between euro zone banks, and underscore the view that heavy reliance on the ECB will persist in the long term, analysts say. The volume of trade in the repo market, where banks commonly use government bonds as collateral to raise funding, has fallen in recent months according to trading platform data. Interdealer broker ICAP said repo volumes through its Brokertec platform were down by around 30 percent since the middle of the fourth quarter of 2011. Average Italian repo volumes over electronic trading system MTS have also fallen in January compared to December, according to information published on MTS's website. Analysts said this reflected banks' preference to use their collateral to draw long-term money from the European Central Bank rather than sourcing cash from the market.

"The recent reduction in volume seen across euro repo markets largely reflects the migration of collateral from the open market to the vaults of the ECB, via last December's three-year (refinancing operation)," said ICAP analyst Chris Clark. The decline in repo volumes affected both ends of the credit spectrum differently, Clark said, with investors preferring to hold onto low-risk German Bunds, whereas lower-rated collateral was safer to lend out to the ECB than to the market. Trust in the region's banking system has been badly hit by the sovereign debt crisis, sapping banks' appetite to lend and prompting the ECB to flood the market with access to cheap cash to prevent a serious funding squeeze. Banks borrowed 489 billion euros in three-year loans at the longest maturity cash injection the central bank has ever held, and demand was expected to be high for a second such tender at the end of February.

Banks have the option to repay the three-year loans after 12 months, but with no end in sight to the euro zone sovereign crisis, analysts expected reliance on the central bank to remain high over the long-term."It takes a long time to restore this confidence," said BNP Paribas strategist Patrick Jacq. Bank of France data showed French financial institutions increased their long-term borrowing from the ECB by 43.6 billion euros in the last month, taking a total of 107 billion euros as of Jan. 17.

DYSFUNCTION CAPPED Although the high degree of ECB dependence pointed to a dysfunctional interbank system, analysts said that while the sovereign crisis continued, the central bank measures were key to keeping stress limited and easing creditworthiness concerns."It helps to improve the perceived credit in the European banking system ... the consensus is that this is helpful to the whole banking system," said Commerzbank strategist Benjamin Schroeder. By providing long-term funding, banks are able to pay down the substantial volume of debt falling due this year. Supporting this view, a Reuters poll of money market traders showed a majority believed these steps had improved access to funding available on the previously moribund unsecured interbank market. The Libor rate for unsecured three-month euro borrowing fell for the 23rd consecutive session, down 0.01357 percent at 1.11214 percent. Nevertheless, anecdotal evidence suggested volumes were still very low and many institutions remain frozen out of the market.